BMI View: Colombia's Q111 balance of payments picture affirms our view that the current account deficit will continue to narrow through strong oil-led export performance. Meanwhile, surging capital inflows into the country should allow the financial account surplus to comfortably cover the current account deficit.
Colombia's current account deficit looks set to continue narrowing on the basis of strong exports, largely from increasing oil exports and to a lesser extent, coal and coffee. As such we forecast a current account deficit of 2.42% by year-end, shrinking to 2.22% in 2012. In line with our core view that investment will be a key driver of growth in the country in the coming years, investment inflows into the country approached record highs, and should continue to comfortably cover the structural current account deficit in the medium term.